Climate Risk Summary
Zip Code 22438, Risk Profile
The primary drivers of climate-related financial risk in Unincorporated, VA (22438) are Hurricane, Inland Flooding, and Coastal Flooding. This area also faces an unusually high intensity for Drought, Strong Wind, and Landslide compared to national averages.
Understanding the Dollars
Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is a statistical average of property damage for this entire zip code over a standard year across all properties.
- / It represents the "average cost" rather than a guaranteed yearly bill.
- / It can be used to compare the relative risk from different hazards and across different neighborhoods.
Primary Risks
Hurricane
Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22438
Relatively High compared to US average
Inland Flooding
Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22438
Relatively Moderate compared to US average
Coastal Flooding
Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22438
Relatively High compared to US average
Zip Code Risk Map
Financial Risk Inventory
Recommended Mitigation Strategies
Recommended investments to protect your property value and reduce insurance liability based on your local risk profile.
Hurricane Mitigation
Install permanent hurricane shutters or upgrade to impact-resistant windows.
Inland Flooding Mitigation
Install a smart sump pump with battery backup and extend downspouts 10ft from foundation.
Coastal Flooding Mitigation
General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.
Drought Mitigation
General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.
Strong Wind Mitigation
Trim large trees back from the roofline and reinforce roof-to-wall connectors (hurricane straps).
Landslide Mitigation
Professional slope stabilization and foundation drainage inspection is highly recommended.
Methodology and Sources
Spatial Aggregation
Our "Atlas" risk scores are derived using a population-weighted spatial join. Because US Zip Codes and Census Tracts do not share perfectly aligned boundaries, a simple geographic average would be misleading. We utilize US Census Block Group population statistics to identify where residents actually live within a Zip Code. We then intersect these points with FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) hazard data to calculate a weighted exposure score.
Financial Projections (EAL)
Expected Annual Loss (EAL) estimates the average economic impact of natural hazards in dollars per year. This calculation incorporates three components: Exposure (the value of structures and agriculture), Annualized Frequency (historical probability), and Historic Loss Ratio (vulnerability of the area).
Primary Data Sources
- FEMA National Risk IndexHazard frequency and loss data (v1.20.0)
- U.S. Census BureauTIGER/Line 2025 Shapefiles & Decennial Population