Climate Risk Summary

Zip Code 22031, Risk Profile

The primary drivers of climate-related financial risk in Fairfax, VA (22031) are Inland Flooding, Hurricane, and Heat Wave.

Understanding the Dollars

Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is a statistical average of property damage for this entire zip code over a standard year across all properties.

  • / It represents the "average cost" rather than a guaranteed yearly bill.
  • / It can be used to compare the relative risk from different hazards and across different neighborhoods.

Primary Risks

Inland Flooding

$3,209,954

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22031

37.3Score

Relatively Moderate compared to US average

22031
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Hurricane

$456,971

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22031

71.1Score

Relatively Moderate compared to US average

22031
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Heat Wave

$373,784

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 22031

59.1Score

Relatively Moderate compared to US average

22031
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Zip Code Risk Map

Legend
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Extreme

Financial Risk Inventory

MAJOR DRIVER
Inland Flooding
$3,209,954
Score: 37.3
MAJOR DRIVER
Hurricane
$456,971
Score: 71.1
MAJOR DRIVER
Heat Wave
$373,784
Score: 59.1
Earthquake
$269,142
Score: 52.7
Strong Wind
$170,209
Score: 53.9
Cold Wave
$150,459
Score: 32.5
Lightning
$131,245
Score: 61.9
Hail
$101,105
Score: 61.5
Tornado
$100,532
Score: 20.6
Winter Weather
$50,670
Score: 73.7
Ice Storm
$15,682
Score: 28.9
Wildfire
$1,764
Score: 40.2
Landslide
$29
Score: 46.3

Recommended Mitigation Strategies

Recommended investments to protect your property value and reduce insurance liability based on your local risk profile.

💧Medium Investment

Inland Flooding Mitigation

Install a smart sump pump with battery backup and extend downspouts 10ft from foundation.

Risk Score: 37.3
🌀High Investment

Hurricane Mitigation

Install permanent hurricane shutters or upgrade to impact-resistant windows.

Risk Score: 71.1
☀️Low Investment

Heat Wave Mitigation

Ensure attic insulation is R-49+ and consider a dual-fuel backup generator for AC.

Risk Score: 59.1

Methodology and Sources

Spatial Aggregation

Our "Atlas" risk scores are derived using a population-weighted spatial join. Because US Zip Codes and Census Tracts do not share perfectly aligned boundaries, a simple geographic average would be misleading. We utilize US Census Block Group population statistics to identify where residents actually live within a Zip Code. We then intersect these points with FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) hazard data to calculate a weighted exposure score.

Financial Projections (EAL)

Expected Annual Loss (EAL) estimates the average economic impact of natural hazards in dollars per year. This calculation incorporates three components: Exposure (the value of structures and agriculture), Annualized Frequency (historical probability), and Historic Loss Ratio (vulnerability of the area).

Primary Data Sources

  • FEMA National Risk IndexHazard frequency and loss data (v1.20.0)
  • U.S. Census BureauTIGER/Line 2025 Shapefiles & Decennial Population

Nearby Locations

Zip Code 22030Zip Code 22003Zip Code 22180Zip Code 22032Zip Code 22181Zip Code 22124