Climate Risk Summary

Zip Code 40004, Risk Profile

The primary drivers of climate-related financial risk in Bardstown, KY (40004) are Inland Flooding, Tornado, and Strong Wind. This area also faces an unusually high intensity for Cold Wave, Lightning, and Winter Weather compared to national averages.

Understanding the Dollars

Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is a statistical average of property damage for this entire zip code over a standard year across all properties.

  • / It represents the "average cost" rather than a guaranteed yearly bill.
  • / It can be used to compare the relative risk from different hazards and across different neighborhoods.

Primary Risks

Inland Flooding

$4,466,169

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 40004

59.5Score

Relatively High compared to US average

40004
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Tornado

$1,752,198

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 40004

83.8Score

Very High compared to US average

40004
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Strong Wind

$1,343,716

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 40004

97.2Score

Very High compared to US average

40004
Minimal Estimated LossMax Estimated Loss

Zip Code Risk Map

Legend
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Extreme

Financial Risk Inventory

MAJOR DRIVER
Inland Flooding
$4,466,169
Score: 59.5
MAJOR DRIVER
Tornado
$1,752,198
Score: 83.8
MAJOR DRIVER
Strong Wind
$1,343,716
Score: 97.2
UNUSUALLY HIGH
Cold Wave
$1,108,776
Score: 80.7
Earthquake
$678,928
Score: 70.4
UNUSUALLY HIGH
Lightning
$673,450
Score: 97.9
Heat Wave
$204,124
Score: 46.5
Hail
$120,724
Score: 68.6
UNUSUALLY HIGH
Winter Weather
$116,655
Score: 91.3
Ice Storm
$101,885
Score: 79.9
Drought
$12,080
Score: 79.6
Wildfire
$5,524
Score: 64.8
Hurricane
$5,080
Score: 32.6
Landslide
$175
Score: 55.5

Recommended Mitigation Strategies

Recommended investments to protect your property value and reduce insurance liability based on your local risk profile.

💧Medium Investment

Inland Flooding Mitigation

Install a smart sump pump with battery backup and extend downspouts 10ft from foundation.

Risk Score: 59.5
🌪️High Investment

Tornado Mitigation

Reinforce garage doors and consider a FEMA-approved safe room or storm cellar.

Risk Score: 83.8
💨Low Investment

Strong Wind Mitigation

Trim large trees back from the roofline and reinforce roof-to-wall connectors (hurricane straps).

Risk Score: 97.2
🏠Low Investment

Cold Wave Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 80.7
🏠Low Investment

Lightning Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 97.9
🏠Low Investment

Winter Weather Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 91.3

Methodology and Sources

Spatial Aggregation

Our "Atlas" risk scores are derived using a population-weighted spatial join. Because US Zip Codes and Census Tracts do not share perfectly aligned boundaries, a simple geographic average would be misleading. We utilize US Census Block Group population statistics to identify where residents actually live within a Zip Code. We then intersect these points with FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) hazard data to calculate a weighted exposure score.

Financial Projections (EAL)

Expected Annual Loss (EAL) estimates the average economic impact of natural hazards in dollars per year. This calculation incorporates three components: Exposure (the value of structures and agriculture), Annualized Frequency (historical probability), and Historic Loss Ratio (vulnerability of the area).

Primary Data Sources

  • FEMA National Risk IndexHazard frequency and loss data (v1.20.0)
  • U.S. Census BureauTIGER/Line 2025 Shapefiles & Decennial Population

Nearby Locations

Zip Code 40051Zip Code 40008Zip Code 40013Zip Code 40037Zip Code 40107Zip Code 40069